Crisis? The mood in the euro area is no longer followed. In German politics the euro crisis plays hardly any role, in Brussels protest the politicians that the worst was over – and tap each other for their crisis management and the institutional changes adopted since 2010 on the shoulder. Really justified this growing complacency is not. Because economically it looks far from not so good, how many players would have you believe. And politically, many questions about the conversion of the currency union, which have been raised over the crisis unresolved.
Moreover in Greece and elsewhere: The financial sector is far from the consolidation, no one knows exactly how much money needs to be plugged in over-indebted banks. The European Central Bank (ECB) has as a new Euro-Banking Supervision in the upcoming few months balance tests and stress tests lead to possible credible, so strict criteria, with the risk that some banks fail and be settled. That the view in the banking books, the financial markets could make quick nervous again, is obvious.
ECB President Mario Draghi, the relaxation in the markets this week, with the progress in reforms in the periphery countries and the jobs created in the new instruments crisis – explains – from emergency funds to the ESM a banking union. Also this is at best a half-truth. For the deceptive calm has self catered mainly Draghi. His assurance that the ECB would quasi protect the euro over the bond purchase program OMT at any price, an acceptance of liability on behalf of the European tax payer same. In contrast to the ESM activities it requires no democratic legitimacy of the euro countries, which is all political parties just right. Only in the unlikely event that the OMT program would tilted in court, could be seen, whether the situation in the euro area has really consolidated.
The consequence of the current peace is increasingly political gridlock. In the euro countries, there reform annoyance (in the program countries) continued unwillingness to reform (in France and Italy) or even desire to step back (in Germany). That's not a good sign. At the same time the discussion on the political and institutional future of the euro area has virtually ground to a halt. This discussion is necessary, however, because the future of the euro depends on it. Even if the immediate crisis should be overcome, since the Maastricht smoldering question remains current as the monetary union is to function without a political union. The temporary solution found during the crisis, with joint liability national policy and budget responsibility – for countries such as banks – to link, can not continue in the long term. Who holds a political union for neither desirable nor realistic, appoint other options – or to realize that the euro in its current form in the long run but just can not survive.